BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Skimmer Population Trend in New York

All statesWetland birds

Black Skimmer in New York has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+20%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Skimmer Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Skimmer in New York. See the full index history below.

Black Skimmer Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Black Skimmer in New York is projected to fall about 21% by 2026 — from 0.06 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±102%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Skimmer in New York is projected to fall about 21% by 2026 — from 0.06 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.040.000.10
20230.040.000.10
20240.040.000.10
20250.040.000.10
20260.040.000.10

Black Skimmer Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Black Skimmer in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jones Beach920061971
Huntington320211975
Westhampton120191967

Black Skimmer Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniadelawarefloridageorgialouisianamarylandmississippinew-jerseynorth-carolinasouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.