BirdAnalyst
Guild · Idaho · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wetland Birds In Idaho

All statesIdaho

26 species in this guild. As a group they are -83%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wetland birds as a group have collapsed in Idaho, down 83% since 1970.

Wetland Birds In Idaho Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Idaho is projected to fall about 67% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-67%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Idaho is projected to fall about 67% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.008.1
20271.50.008.0
20281.40.007.9
20291.30.007.8
20301.20.007.7

Member Species In Idaho

Wetland birds species in Idaho.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
California GullLaridae-94%
Western GrebePodicipedidae-94%
Forster's TernLaridae-89%
Snowy EgretArdeidae-86%
American CootRallidae-83%
Yellow-headed BlackbirdIcteridae-82%
Ring-billed GullLaridae-82%
Caspian TernLaridae-81%
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-81%
Red-necked GrebePodicipedidae-79%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae-78%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-73%
Eared GrebePodicipedidae-72%
American BitternArdeidae-70%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-63%
Virginia RailRallidae-55%
Pied-billed GrebePodicipedidae-49%
American White PelicanPelecanidae-49%
Clark's GrebePodicipedidae-37%
Black TernLaridae-30%
American DipperCinclidae+10%
SoraRallidae+17%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae+116%
Franklin's GullLaridae+129%
Sandhill CraneGruidae+348%
White-faced IbisThreskiornithidae+607%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.