BirdAnalyst
Guild · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wetland Birds In Idaho

All statesIdaho

22 species in this guild. As a group they are -73%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wetland birds as a group have fallen sharply in Idaho, down 73% since 1970.

Wetland Birds In Idaho Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Idaho is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.79 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.00–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Idaho is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.79 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.00–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.980.006.9
20260.890.006.8
20270.810.006.8
20280.720.006.7
20290.630.006.6

Member Species In Idaho

Wetland birds species in Idaho.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
California GullLaridae-94%
Western GrebePodicipedidae-91%
Forster's TernLaridae-89%
Snowy EgretArdeidae-86%
Caspian TernLaridae-81%
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-80%
Red-necked GrebePodicipedidae-78%
Ring-billed GullLaridae-76%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae-76%
Eared GrebePodicipedidae-70%
American BitternArdeidae-69%
American CootRallidae-62%
Virginia RailRallidae-55%
American White PelicanPelecanidae-52%
Pied-billed GrebePodicipedidae-49%
Clark's GrebePodicipedidae-37%
Black TernLaridae-30%
SoraRallidae+15%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae+157%
White-faced IbisThreskiornithidae+198%
Sandhill CraneGruidae+398%
Franklin's GullLaridae+761%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.