BirdAnalyst
Guild · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wetland Birds In South Carolina

All statesSouth Carolina

21 species in this guild. As a group they are -82%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wetland birds as a group have collapsed in South Carolina, down 82% since 1968.

Wetland Birds In South Carolina Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in South Carolina is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.58 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in South Carolina is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.58 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.001.8
20270.040.001.7
20280.000.001.7
20290.000.001.7
20300.000.001.7

Member Species In South Carolina

Wetland birds species in South Carolina.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-94%
Little Blue HeronArdeidae-92%
Clapper RailRallidae-75%
Wood StorkCiconiidae-74%
Tricolored HeronArdeidae-74%
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-66%
Green HeronArdeidae-59%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-56%
Great EgretArdeidae-53%
Boat-tailed GrackleIcteridae-48%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae-47%
Western Cattle-EgretArdeidae-45%
White IbisThreskiornithidae-43%
Yellow-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-25%
Least TernLaridae-21%
Glossy IbisThreskiornithidae-1%
Snowy EgretArdeidae+14%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae+68%
Laughing GullLaridae+121%
AnhingaAnhingidae+147%
Common GallinuleRallidae+223%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.