BirdAnalyst
Guild · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wetland Birds In South Carolina

All statesSouth Carolina

16 species in this guild. As a group they are -43%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wetland birds as a group have declined in South Carolina, down 43% since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in South Carolina is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.81Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in South Carolina is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.870.002.9
20260.860.002.9
20270.840.002.8
20280.820.002.8
20290.810.002.8

Member Species In South Carolina

Wetland birds species in South Carolina.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Little Blue HeronArdeidae-87%
Clapper RailRallidae-75%
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-66%
Tricolored HeronArdeidae-61%
Green HeronArdeidae-56%
Western Cattle-EgretArdeidae-55%
Great EgretArdeidae-52%
White IbisThreskiornithidae-26%
Least TernLaridae-22%
Snowy EgretArdeidae-16%
Yellow-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-10%
Glossy IbisThreskiornithidae+20%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae+50%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae+57%
Laughing GullLaridae+145%
Common GallinuleRallidae+175%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.