BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pelagic Cormorant

PhalacrocoracidaeWetland birdsUrile pelagicus

Pelagic Cormorant has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-81%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Pelagic Cormorant

The Pelagic Cormorant (Urile pelagicus) is a North American member of the Cormorants (Phalacrocoracidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the wetland birds.

Size
27.5–35.5 in long (70–90 cm) — a large diving waterbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Marshes, ponds, lakeshores and other freshwater wetlands.
Diet
Aquatic invertebrates, small fish, frogs and plant matter.
Range
Recorded on 25 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 4 states, most concentrated in the Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Family
Phalacrocoracidae · Wetland birds

Notable Pelagic Cormorant TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pelagic Cormorant. See the full index history below.

Pelagic Cormorant Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pelagic Cormorant is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±901.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±901.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pelagic Cormorant is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±901.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.07
20260.020.000.07
20270.020.000.07
20280.020.000.07
20290.010.000.07

Where the Pelagic Cormorant Is Detected

BBS routes recording Pelagic Cormorant, sized by most recent count.

Pelagic Cormorant Population Trend by State

Pelagic Cormorant population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska-77%19859
California-74%19708
Oregon+108%19764
Washington-53%19714

Pelagic Cormorant Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Pelagic Cormorant population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2-45%19886
Northern Pacific Rainforest-91%197015

Pelagic Cormorant Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 81% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.