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Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pelagic Cormorant In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Wetland birds

Pelagic Cormorant in BCR 2 has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

-45%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pelagic Cormorant in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Pelagic Cormorant In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pelagic Cormorant in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 58% by 2020 — from 0.11 in 2015 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±169.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2020TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2020 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±169.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pelagic Cormorant in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 58% by 2020 — from 0.11 in 2015 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±169.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832020
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20160.200.000.66
20170.200.000.66
20180.190.000.65
20190.180.000.64
20200.170.000.64

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Pelagic Cormorant in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cape NomeALASKA22012
KodiakALASKA11983
ChiniakALASKA12015
Kodiak 2ALASKA12009
NomeALASKA11997
Cold Bay (Short)ALASKA11991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.