BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rusty Blackbird

IcteridaeWetland birdsEuphagus carolinus

Rusty Blackbird has increased: up 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
132RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Rusty Blackbird

A boreal-breeding blackbird of wooded swamps and wet woods, the Rusty Blackbird has suffered one of the steepest declines of any North American bird.

Size
8.5–10 in long, about 2.1 oz (21–25 cm, 60 g)
Habitat
Marshes, ponds, lakeshores and other freshwater wetlands.
Diet
Insects and aquatic invertebrates, plus seeds and waste grain.
Range
Recorded on 132 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 8 states, most concentrated in the Atlantic Northern Forest.
Family
Icteridae · Wetland birds
Conservation
Vulnerable

Notable Rusty Blackbird TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rusty Blackbird. See the full index history below.

Rusty Blackbird Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rusty Blackbird is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.01–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rusty Blackbird is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.01–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.010.03
20260.020.010.03
20270.020.010.03
20280.020.010.03
20290.020.010.03

Where the Rusty Blackbird Is Detected

BBS routes recording Rusty Blackbird, sized by most recent count.

Rusty Blackbird Population Trend by State

Rusty Blackbird population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska-32%197667
Maine-88%196829
Michiganinsufficient datan/a1
Minnesotainsufficient datan/a4
New Hampshire-69%19688
New Jerseyinsufficient datan/a1
New York+61%197115
Vermontinsufficient datan/a7

Rusty Blackbird Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Rusty Blackbird population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2-88%198713
BCR 4-15%198346
Northern Pacific Rainforest-61%19828
Atlantic Northern Forest-79%196857

Rusty Blackbird Conservation Status

Vulnerable

The IUCN Red List rates this species as Vulnerable. Our route-weighted index shows it up about 48% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.