BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rusty Blackbird Population Trend in Maine

All statesGeneralists

Rusty Blackbird in Maine has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-88%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rusty Blackbird Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rusty Blackbird has collapsed in Maine: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rusty Blackbird Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Rusty Blackbird in Maine is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±125.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rusty Blackbird in Maine is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.000.000.25
20210.000.000.25
20220.000.000.25
20230.000.000.25
20240.000.000.25

Rusty Blackbird Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Rusty Blackbird in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Baker Lake 2420102010
Priestly Br.420002000
Heron Lake319981985
Cooper319791979
Pillsbury Pd319681968
South Arm219881975
Harmony220112011
Wytopitlock219781978
Clayton Lake220012000
Big Twenty220081996
Yankeetuladi220092002
Wilson Mills120161986
Bethel120192019
Turner119721972
Manchester119741974
East Troy119721972
Clayton Lake 2120112011
Benton119711971
Big Twenty 2120092009
Moose River120051988
Carrabassett119861986
Seboomook Lk120051984
Cambridge119761972
Medway119981979
Forest Sta119751966

Rusty Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskamichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkvermont

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.