BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rusty Blackbird Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Rusty Blackbird in New York has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+61%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rusty Blackbird Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rusty Blackbird in New York. See the full index history below.

Rusty Blackbird Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Rusty Blackbird in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2022TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2022 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rusty Blackbird in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672022
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20180.030.000.06
20190.030.000.06
20200.030.000.06
20210.030.000.06
20220.030.000.06

Rusty Blackbird Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Rusty Blackbird in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Speculator619771975
Sabattis419711970
Balmat319831983
Degrasse220172017
Wanakena220112011
Underwood219881967
Horseshoe L.220131994
S Horicon220042004
Dexter Lake119751975
Gabriels120162013
St Regis Fls120171987
Highmarket119911981
Ellenburg120052005
Old Forge119731973
Newcomb119961973

Rusty Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.