Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Rusty Blackbird Population Trend in Alaska
Rusty Blackbird in Alaska has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1976.
-32%Since 1976
67Routes In State
45Years
Notable Rusty Blackbird Trends in Alaska
No notable trend signals for Rusty Blackbird in Alaska. See the full index history below.
Rusty Blackbird Population Forecast in Alaska
If the recent trend holds, Rusty Blackbird in Alaska is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.01–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+21%Change by 2029
0.47Projected 2029 index
0.01–0.9495% range
±44.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.49 | 0.03 | 0.96 |
| 2026 | 0.49 | 0.02 | 0.95 |
| 2027 | 0.48 | 0.02 | 0.95 |
| 2028 | 0.48 | 0.01 | 0.94 |
| 2029 | 0.47 | 0.01 | 0.94 |
Rusty Blackbird Survey Routes in Alaska
| Bear Creek | 14 | 1991 | 1986 |
| Elmendorf (Short) | 12 | 1985 | 1984 |
| Burma Road | 12 | 2018 | 1996 |
| Tupuknuk | 10 | 1995 | 1995 |
| Hather Creek | 7 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Slana | 5 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Northway | 5 | 2022 | 1989 |
| Seward | 4 | 1992 | 1982 |
| Kobuk River (Short) | 4 | 1991 | 1991 |
| Wasilla | 4 | 1983 | 1983 |
| Kugarak (Short) | 4 | 1987 | 1986 |
| Mcgrath | 3 | 2018 | 1998 |
| Mud River | 3 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Anvik River | 3 | 2023 | 1998 |
| Mccarthy Rd2 | 3 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Dillingham (Short) | 3 | 1984 | 1984 |
| Circle | 2 | 2017 | 1987 |
| Kenai Lake (Short) | 2 | 1984 | 1984 |
| Monahan | 2 | 2015 | 1986 |
| Koyukuk Riv. | 2 | 2001 | 1994 |
| Chena Hot Sp | 2 | 1990 | 1987 |
| Murphy Dome | 2 | 1998 | 1994 |
| Ft. Richrdsn | 2 | 2010 | 2010 |
| Togiak River | 2 | 2000 | 2000 |
| Gweek River | 2 | 2002 | 1994 |
Rusty Blackbird Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.