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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rusty Blackbird Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWetland birds

Rusty Blackbird in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-60%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rusty Blackbird Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rusty Blackbird has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Rusty Blackbird Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Rusty Blackbird in Alaska is projected to rise about 178% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+178%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rusty Blackbird in Alaska is projected to rise about 178% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.460.000.93
20270.450.000.92
20280.440.000.91
20290.440.000.91
20300.430.000.90

Rusty Blackbird Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Rusty Blackbird in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear Creek1419911986
Elmendorf (Short)1219851984
Tupuknuk1019951995
Hather Creek720241994
Slana520241994
Seward419921982
Kobuk River (Short)419911991
Wasilla419831983
Kugarak (Short)419871986
Burma Road320251996
Mcgrath320181998
Mud River320241993
Anvik River320231998
Mccarthy Rd2320241992
Dillingham (Short)319841984
Circle220171987
Northway220251989
Kenai Lake (Short)219841984
Monahan220151986
Koyukuk Riv.220011994
Chena Hot Sp219901987
Murphy Dome219981994
Ft. Richrdsn220102010
Togiak River220002000
Gweek River220021994

Rusty Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.