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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rusty Blackbird In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Generalists

Rusty Blackbird in BCR 4 has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-15%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rusty Blackbird in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

Rusty Blackbird In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rusty Blackbird in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.10–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.85Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rusty Blackbird in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.10–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.860.111.6
20260.860.111.6
20270.860.101.6
20280.850.101.6
20290.850.101.6

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Rusty Blackbird in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear CreekALASKA141991
Burma RoadALASKA122018
Hather CreekALASKA72024
SlanaALASKA52024
NorthwayALASKA52022
WasillaALASKA41983
Kobuk River (Short)ALASKA41991
McgrathALASKA32018
Mud RiverALASKA32024
Anvik RiverALASKA32023
Mccarthy Rd2ALASKA32024
CircleALASKA22017
MonahanALASKA22015
Chena Hot SpALASKA21990
Koyukuk Riv.ALASKA22001
Murphy DomeALASKA21998
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA22010
TatalinaALASKA22017
Birch LakeALASKA12021
Tower BluffsALASKA12019
ChistochinaALASKA12023
CantwellALASKA11986
Goose BayALASKA11976
Skilak LakeALASKA11984
HomerALASKA11982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.