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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rusty Blackbird In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Rusty Blackbird in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rusty Blackbird has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rusty Blackbird In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rusty Blackbird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rusty Blackbird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.010.000.10
20210.010.000.10
20220.010.000.09
20230.010.000.09
20240.010.000.09

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Rusty Blackbird in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SpeculatorNEW-YORK61977
Priestly Br.MAINE42000
Baker Lake 2MAINE42010
MilanNEW-HAMPSHIRE41973
SabattisNEW-YORK41971
CooperMAINE31979
Pillsbury PdMAINE31968
Heron LakeMAINE31998
South ArmMAINE21988
HarmonyMAINE22011
WytopitlockMAINE21978
Clayton LakeMAINE22001
Big TwentyMAINE22008
YankeetuladiMAINE22009
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE21981
S HoriconNEW-YORK22004
DegrasseNEW-YORK22017
WanakenaNEW-YORK22011
UnderwoodNEW-YORK21988
Horseshoe L.NEW-YORK22013
East HavenVERMONT21975
GreensboroVERMONT21972
WatervilleVERMONT21980
Wilson MillsMAINE12016
BethelMAINE12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.