BirdAnalyst
Guild · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wetland Birds In Nebraska

All statesNebraska

21 species in this guild. As a group they are -52%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wetland birds as a group have fallen sharply in Nebraska, down 52% since 1969.

Wetland Birds In Nebraska Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Nebraska is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 6.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.00–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Nebraska is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 6.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.00–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.90.008.5
20273.80.008.4
20283.70.008.3
20293.60.008.2
20303.50.008.1

Member Species In Nebraska

Wetland birds species in Nebraska.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Eared GrebePodicipedidae-89%
Black TernLaridae-88%
Forster's TernLaridae-70%
Green HeronArdeidae-68%
American CootRallidae-63%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-57%
Western GrebePodicipedidae-53%
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-48%
American White PelicanPelecanidae-47%
SoraRallidae-45%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae-26%
White-faced IbisThreskiornithidae-1%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae+18%
Yellow-headed BlackbirdIcteridae+29%
Least TernLaridae+36%
Pied-billed GrebePodicipedidae+83%
Swamp SparrowPasserellidae+102%
Great-tailed GrackleIcteridae+162%
Western Cattle-EgretArdeidae+203%
American BitternArdeidae+275%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae+468%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.