BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Grebe Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWetland birds

Western Grebe in Nebraska has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

-53%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Grebe Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Grebe has fallen sharply in Nebraska: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

Western Grebe Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Western Grebe in Nebraska is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±139.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±139.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Grebe in Nebraska is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±139.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19912030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.000.40
20270.070.000.40
20280.070.000.39
20290.060.000.39
20300.060.000.38

Western Grebe Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Western Grebe in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brownlee420251992
Nenzel420252019
Crescent Lk220131991
Piester Lake120182018
Kennedy120082008

Western Grebe Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.