BirdAnalyst
Guild · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wetland Birds In Virginia

All statesVirginia

17 species in this guild. As a group they are -77%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wetland birds as a group have collapsed in Virginia, down 77% since 1968.

Wetland Birds In Virginia Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Virginia is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±227.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±227.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Virginia is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±227.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.004.5
20261.60.004.5
20271.60.004.5
20281.60.004.5
20291.60.004.5

Member Species In Virginia

Wetland birds species in Virginia.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Western Cattle-EgretArdeidae-90%
Laughing GullLaridae-79%
Royal TernLaridae-76%
Black SkimmerLaridae-73%
Forster's TernLaridae-66%
Little Blue HeronArdeidae-66%
Yellow-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-64%
Green HeronArdeidae-62%
Clapper RailRallidae-61%
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-50%
Herring GullLaridae-46%
Snowy EgretArdeidae-30%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae-21%
Great Black-backed GullLaridae-11%
Great EgretArdeidae-2%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae+160%
Glossy IbisThreskiornithidae20×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.