BirdAnalyst
Guild · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wetland Birds In Virginia

All statesVirginia

21 species in this guild. As a group they are -75%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wetland birds as a group have fallen sharply in Virginia, down 75% since 1968.

Wetland Birds In Virginia Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Virginia is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Virginia is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.003.7
20271.30.003.6
20281.20.003.6
20291.20.003.5
20301.10.003.5

Member Species In Virginia

Wetland birds species in Virginia.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Laughing GullLaridae-92%
Western Cattle-EgretArdeidae-90%
Herring GullLaridae-87%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae-81%
Royal TernLaridae-76%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-74%
Black SkimmerLaridae-73%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-71%
Seaside SparrowPasserellidae-71%
Forster's TernLaridae-66%
Little Blue HeronArdeidae-66%
Boat-tailed GrackleIcteridae-64%
Yellow-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-64%
Green HeronArdeidae-61%
Clapper RailRallidae-61%
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-50%
Snowy EgretArdeidae-30%
Great EgretArdeidae-28%
Great Black-backed GullLaridae-11%
Glossy IbisThreskiornithidae+44%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae+204%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.