BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Snowy Egret Population Trend in Virginia

All statesWetland birds

Snowy Egret in Virginia has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-30%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Snowy Egret Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Snowy Egret in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Snowy Egret Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±152.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.060.000.24
20240.060.000.24
20250.060.000.24
20260.060.000.24
20270.060.000.24

Snowy Egret Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Snowy Egret in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chincoteag W220221992
Quinby119931966
Port Royal119801980
Gloucester120142014
Pungo120211983
Cape Charles120061995

Snowy Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.