BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Snowy Egret Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesWetland birds

Snowy Egret in New Jersey has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-55%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Snowy Egret Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Snowy Egret has fallen sharply in New Jersey: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Snowy Egret Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±168.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±168.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±168.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.540.001.7
20260.530.001.7
20270.520.001.7
20280.520.001.7
20290.510.001.7

Snowy Egret Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Snowy Egret in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ocean City1020241979
Del Haven719911991
Cape May Ch320131992
Greenwich120101993
Six Points120121978
Pedricktown119951994
Villas119811979

Snowy Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.