BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Snowy Egret Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesWetland birds

Snowy Egret in New Jersey has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-74%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Snowy Egret Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Snowy Egret has fallen sharply in New Jersey: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Snowy Egret Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in New Jersey is projected to rise about 695% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±316%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+695%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.45Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±316%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in New Jersey is projected to rise about 695% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±316%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.480.001.7
20270.470.001.7
20280.460.001.7
20290.450.001.6
20300.450.001.6

Snowy Egret Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Snowy Egret in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Del Haven719911991
Cape May Ch320131992
Greenwich120101993
Six Points120121978
Pedricktown119951994
Ocean City120251979
Villas119811979

Snowy Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.