BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Snowy Egret Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesWetland birds

Snowy Egret in Arkansas has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

-91%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Snowy Egret Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Snowy Egret has collapsed in Arkansas: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Snowy Egret Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in Arkansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±512.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±512.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in Arkansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±512.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.75
20260.000.000.75
20270.000.000.75
20280.000.000.75
20290.000.000.75

Snowy Egret Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Snowy Egret in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harrisburg1020122009
Ulm320242024
Old Milo220012001
Eudora220101990
Locust Bayou220041996
Stamps120141998
Hope120231988
Ashdown120111994
Hughes119991982
Crowley'S Ridge120122012
South Bend120122012
Gillett120162011
Kelso120162016
Poyen 2120092009
Wilson119991999
Massard120081982

Snowy Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.