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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Snowy Egret Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesWetland birds

Snowy Egret in North Carolina has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-89%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Snowy Egret Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Snowy Egret has collapsed in North Carolina: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Snowy Egret Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in North Carolina is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±185.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±185.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in North Carolina is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±185.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.75
20260.070.000.75
20270.070.000.74
20280.060.000.74
20290.060.000.73

Snowy Egret Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Snowy Egret in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Myrtle Grove520241967
Jarvisburg 2520192000
Newport220232002
Shallotte119901984
Merrimon120231968
Supply120012001
Mashoes119821982
Broad Creek119931993
Old Trap120182014

Snowy Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.