BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Snowy Egret Population Trend in Arizona

All statesWetland birds

Snowy Egret in Arizona has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+14%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Snowy Egret Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Snowy Egret in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Snowy Egret Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in Arizona is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±145%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in Arizona is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.39
20260.130.000.39
20270.130.000.39
20280.130.000.39
20290.130.000.39

Snowy Egret Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Snowy Egret in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Rock719991999
Araby620221996
Carr Mtn420171986
Palo Verde320122004
Palo Verde 2320242019
Alpine220182012
Laguna220191979
Ajo220012001
Ajo 2220192019
Cutter 2120162015
Red Rock 2120192019
Florence119681968
Casa Grande120182002

Snowy Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.