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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Laughing Gull Population Trend in Virginia

All statesWetland birds

Laughing Gull in Virginia has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-92%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Laughing Gull Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Laughing Gull has collapsed in Virginia: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Laughing Gull Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Laughing Gull in Virginia is projected to rise about 31× by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4115.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

31×Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4115.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Laughing Gull in Virginia is projected to rise about 31× by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4115.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026150.0042
2027150.0042
2028150.0042
2029150.0042
2030150.0042

Laughing Gull Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Laughing Gull in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chincoteag W34420241992
Cape Charles11520181992
Colonial Pky6019981992
Cornland4420141981
Quinby1220251966
Backbay1019741966
White Stone1020251966
Surry719991983
Brandon219941994
Port Royal120141977
Gloucester120251992
Pungo120231975
Truhart120181997
Sharps119911988

Laughing Gull Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniadelawarefloridageorgialouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsnew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinarhode-islandsouth-carolinatexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.