BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Laughing Gull Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Laughing Gull in Texas has surged: up 477% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+477%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Laughing Gull Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Laughing Gull has surged in Texas: up 477% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Laughing Gull Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Laughing Gull in Texas is projected to rise about 110% by 2030 — from 5.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 2.9–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+110%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±138.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Laughing Gull in Texas is projected to rise about 110% by 2030 — from 5.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 2.9–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026112.419
2027112.519
2028112.619
2029112.820
2030112.920

Laughing Gull Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Laughing Gull in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oyster Lake29720251995
Petronila22720251968
Bayside13320101994
Loyola Beach11420091994
Indianola9520241967
Bayside 28920041997
Padre Island Pais8320152015
Danbury6920251977
L. Atascosa Nwr5720251998
Lag Atascosa5420251969
Bayside 34320252005
Kingsville3220241967
Stowell2920251972
Progreso2820111994
Port Acres2320251997
Loyola Beach 21520252010
Chinquapin1320251995
Raymondville1120251969
San Ygnacio619811981
Moon Lake 2520252023
Rachal319781978
Hinkles Fer320241969
Moon Lake320021995
Heidelberg320242013
Henrietta220041994

Laughing Gull Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.