BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Laughing Gull Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesWetland birds

Laughing Gull in New Jersey has surged: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

25×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Laughing Gull Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Laughing Gull has surged in New Jersey: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Laughing Gull Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Laughing Gull in New Jersey is projected to rise about 185% by 2029 — from 19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 54 (95% range 0.00–147). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±173.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+185%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–14795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±173.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Laughing Gull in New Jersey is projected to rise about 185% by 2029 — from 19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 54 (95% range 0.00–147). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±173.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025530.00146
2026530.00146
2027530.00146
2028540.00147
2029540.00147

Laughing Gull Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Laughing Gull in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Del Haven152919911991
Villas87619811979
Cape May Ch54820131992
Ocean City34720241979
Albion6020211989
Spraguetown 23820072000
Clarksville2919911991
Toms River2520241966
Six Points1820241978
Pedricktown 2720142014
Pomona620231980
Holmansville419891978
New Bedford420121975
Mt Misery419891984
Winslow420241989
Cranbury319881988
Bennett Mill 2320242016
Greenwich220141982
Bennett Mill220001993
Friendship220001977
Spraguetown219991977
Woodbury Hgt120221990
Keyport120222022
Estell Manor120222022
Pedricktown120101995

Laughing Gull Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniadelawarefloridageorgialouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsnew-yorknorth-carolinarhode-islandsouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.