BirdAnalyst
Guild · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wetland Birds In New Mexico

All statesNew Mexico

13 species in this guild. As a group they are -77%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wetland birds as a group have collapsed in New Mexico, down 77% since 1970.

Wetland Birds In New Mexico Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in New Mexico is projected to rise about 83% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±224.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+83%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±224.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in New Mexico is projected to rise about 83% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±224.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.39
20260.150.000.39
20270.140.000.38
20280.140.000.38
20290.140.000.38

Member Species In New Mexico

Wetland birds species in New Mexico.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Snowy EgretArdeidae-92%
Eared GrebePodicipedidae-88%
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-82%
Western Cattle-EgretArdeidae-81%
American CootRallidae-79%
Virginia RailRallidae-26%
Green HeronArdeidae-25%
Western GrebePodicipedidae-24%
Great EgretArdeidae-13%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae-10%
SoraRallidae+22%
Pied-billed GrebePodicipedidae+39%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae+71%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.