BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Double-crested Cormorant Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesWetland birds

Double-crested Cormorant in New Mexico has held roughly steady: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

-10%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Double-crested Cormorant Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Double-crested Cormorant in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Double-crested Cormorant Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Double-crested Cormorant in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±134.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±134.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Double-crested Cormorant in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±134.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.030.000.26
20240.020.000.26
20250.020.000.26
20260.020.000.26
20270.020.000.25

Double-crested Cormorant Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Double-crested Cormorant in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laborcita320111994
Farmington119771977
Mesilla119991999
Dulce120222018
Jornada119961988

Double-crested Cormorant Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.