BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Double-crested Cormorant Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesWetland birds

Double-crested Cormorant in New Mexico has increased: up 49% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+49%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Double-crested Cormorant Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Double-crested Cormorant in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Double-crested Cormorant Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Double-crested Cormorant in New Mexico is projected to fall about 69% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-69%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Double-crested Cormorant in New Mexico is projected to fall about 69% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.26
20270.030.000.26
20280.030.000.26
20290.020.000.26
20300.020.000.25

Double-crested Cormorant Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Double-crested Cormorant in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laborcita320111994
Dulce320252018
Farmington119771977
Mesilla119991999
Jornada119961988

Double-crested Cormorant Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.