BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Double-crested Cormorant Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Double-crested Cormorant in Texas has surged: up 248% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+248%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Double-crested Cormorant Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Double-crested Cormorant in Texas. See the full index history below.

Double-crested Cormorant Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Double-crested Cormorant in Texas is projected to rise about 149% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+149%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±119.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Double-crested Cormorant in Texas is projected to rise about 149% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.000.30
20270.120.000.30
20280.130.000.30
20290.130.000.30
20300.130.000.30

Double-crested Cormorant Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Double-crested Cormorant in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chandler 24020182008
Waka2520102010
Katy2019851985
Bayside1020101994
Petronila720162016
Chinquapin520212021
Yoakum420042004
Encinal 2420232023
Smyrna420052005
Cayuga320252004
Crossroads320251999
Athens320111973
Presidio320212021
Padre Island Pais220152015
Indianola220071988
Campbellton220042000
Stowell219941984
Massey Lake220231974
Kosse220162016
Quitman Canyon 2220212017
Creedmore220002000
Fannin220012001
Lag Atascosa120251989
Kingsville119871982
Schroeder119821982

Double-crested Cormorant Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.