BirdAnalyst
Guild · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wetland Birds In West Virginia

All statesWest Virginia

4 species in this guild. As a group they are -71%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wetland birds as a group have fallen sharply in West Virginia, down 71% since 1968.

Wetland Birds In West Virginia Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in West Virginia is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-78%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in West Virginia is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.30.009.5
20262.00.009.3
20271.80.009.0
20281.50.008.8
20291.30.008.5

Member Species In West Virginia

Wetland birds species in West Virginia.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Green HeronArdeidae-85%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-62%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-10%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae+390%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.