BirdAnalyst
Guild · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wetland Birds In Arizona

All statesArizona

13 species in this guild. As a group they are -75%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wetland birds as a group have fallen sharply in Arizona, down 75% since 1970.

Wetland Birds In Arizona Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Arizona is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Arizona is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.000.62
20260.160.000.62
20270.160.000.61
20280.150.000.61
20290.150.000.60

Member Species In Arizona

Wetland birds species in Arizona.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Western Cattle-EgretArdeidae-92%
Great EgretArdeidae-83%
Green HeronArdeidae-72%
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-60%
Least BitternArdeidae-56%
American CootRallidae-31%
Western GrebePodicipedidae-11%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae-7%
Virginia RailRallidae+12%
Snowy EgretArdeidae+14%
Pied-billed GrebePodicipedidae+86%
Ridgway's RailRallidae+239%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae+241%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.