BirdAnalyst
Guild · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wetland Birds In Arizona

All statesArizona

16 species in this guild. As a group they are -89%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wetland birds as a group have collapsed in Arizona, down 89% since 1970.

Wetland Birds In Arizona Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Arizona is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±174.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±174.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Arizona is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±174.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0016
20270.000.0016
20280.000.0016
20290.000.0016
20300.000.0016

Member Species In Arizona

Wetland birds species in Arizona.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Western Cattle-EgretArdeidae-92%
Great EgretArdeidae-85%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-81%
Green HeronArdeidae-72%
Least BitternArdeidae-56%
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-53%
American CootRallidae-20%
Western GrebePodicipedidae-11%
Virginia RailRallidae+12%
Snowy EgretArdeidae+14%
Pied-billed GrebePodicipedidae+80%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae+113%
Yellow-headed BlackbirdIcteridae+196%
Ridgway's RailRallidae+239%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae+267%
Great-tailed GrackleIcteridae+390%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.