BirdAnalyst
Guild · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wetland Birds In Alaska

All statesAlaska

21 species in this guild. As a group they are -96%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1972.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wetland birds as a group have collapsed in Alaska, down 96% since 1972.

Wetland Birds In Alaska Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Alaska is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±525.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±525.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Alaska is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±525.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0018
20270.000.0018
20280.000.0018
20290.000.0018
20300.000.0018

Member Species In Alaska

Wetland birds species in Alaska.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Great Blue HeronArdeidae-98%
Herring GullLaridae-97%
Glaucous GullLaridae-96%
Bonaparte's GullLaridae-93%
Red-necked GrebePodicipedidae-86%
Aleutian TernLaridae-85%
American DipperCinclidae-85%
Horned GrebePodicipedidae-83%
Pelagic CormorantPhalacrocoracidae-78%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-62%
Rusty BlackbirdIcteridae-60%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-58%
Short-billed GullLaridae-56%
Arctic TernLaridae-51%
Common LoonGaviidae-47%
SoraRallidae-26%
Black-legged KittiwakeLaridae-22%
Pacific LoonGaviidae+11%
Sandhill CraneGruidae+95%
Red-throated LoonGaviidae+155%
Glaucous-winged GullLaridae+262%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.