Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Arctic Tern Population Trend in Alaska
Arctic Tern in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1977.
-61%Since 1977
81Routes In State
46Years
Notable Arctic Tern Trends in Alaska
long arc declinecomputed index
Arctic Tern has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1977.
Arctic Tern Population Forecast in Alaska
If the recent trend holds, Arctic Tern in Alaska is projected to rise about 194% by 2029 — from 0.79 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±310.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+194%Change by 2029
2.3Projected 2029 index
0.00–4.895% range
±310.7%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.3 | 0.00 | 4.8 |
| 2026 | 2.3 | 0.00 | 4.8 |
| 2027 | 2.3 | 0.00 | 4.8 |
| 2028 | 2.3 | 0.00 | 4.8 |
| 2029 | 2.3 | 0.00 | 4.8 |
Arctic Tern Survey Routes in Alaska
| Goodnews Bay | 63 | 2005 | 1999 |
| Kanektok Riv | 48 | 2005 | 1995 |
| Cape Nome | 34 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Togiak River | 26 | 2005 | 1994 |
| Adak | 14 | 1997 | 1984 |
| Nome | 11 | 2023 | 1993 |
| Seven Lakes | 9 | 2023 | 1986 |
| Kenny Lake | 6 | 1990 | 1990 |
| Cold Bay | 6 | 2024 | 2009 |
| Moose Pass | 5 | 1992 | 1983 |
| Cold Bay (Short) | 5 | 1991 | 1984 |
| Porcupine R. | 5 | 2002 | 1993 |
| Sourdough | 4 | 2017 | 1989 |
| Tangle Lakes | 4 | 1987 | 1987 |
| Mud River | 4 | 2013 | 1993 |
| Skagway | 4 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Ft. Richrdsn | 4 | 2022 | 1996 |
| Seward | 3 | 1984 | 1982 |
| Kodiak | 3 | 1983 | 1983 |
| Cordova | 3 | 2012 | 1983 |
| Cohoe | 3 | 2018 | 2013 |
| Mitkof Isle | 3 | 1989 | 1989 |
| Kodiak 2 | 3 | 2019 | 1985 |
| Copper River | 3 | 2011 | 1993 |
| Kugarak (Short) | 3 | 1987 | 1986 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.