Arctic Tern
Arctic Tern has surged: up 556% on the route-weighted index since 1977.
About the Arctic Tern
The Arctic Tern (Sterna paradisaea) is a North American member of the Gulls, Terns & Skimmers (Laridae). In this analysis it is grouped with the wetland birds.
- Size
- 8.5–31.5 in long (22–80 cm) — a long-winged waterbird (typical for the family)
- Habitat
- Marshes, ponds, lakeshores and other freshwater wetlands.
- Diet
- Aquatic invertebrates, small fish, frogs and plant matter.
- Range
- Recorded on 81 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 1 state, most concentrated in the BCR 4.
- Family
- Laridae · Wetland birds
Notable Arctic Tern Trends
No notable trend signals for Arctic Tern. See the full index history below.
Arctic Tern Population Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Arctic Tern is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±353.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| 2026 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| 2027 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| 2028 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| 2029 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
Where the Arctic Tern Is Detected
BBS routes recording Arctic Tern, sized by most recent count.
Arctic Tern Population Trend by State
| Alaska | -61% | 1977 | 81 |
Arctic Tern Population Trend by Region
Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.
| BCR 2 | +45% | 1985 | 23 |
| BCR 3 | +33% | 1995 | 4 |
| BCR 4 | -84% | 1978 | 41 |
| Northern Pacific Rainforest | -63% | 1983 | 12 |
Arctic Tern Conservation Status
Our route-weighted index shows it up about 556% since 1977.
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.