Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Arctic Tern In BCR 2
Arctic Tern in BCR 2 has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1985.
+45%Since 1985
23Routes In Region
40Years
Notable Signals
No notable trend signals for Arctic Tern in BCR 2. See the full index history below.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Arctic Tern in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 132% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±566.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+132%Change by 2029
11Projected 2029 index
0.00–2695% range
±566.8%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11 | 0.00 | 25 |
| 2026 | 11 | 0.00 | 25 |
| 2027 | 11 | 0.00 | 25 |
| 2028 | 11 | 0.00 | 26 |
| 2029 | 11 | 0.00 | 26 |
Routes In BCR 2
| Goodnews Bay | ALASKA | 63 | 2005 |
| Kanektok Riv | ALASKA | 48 | 2005 |
| Cape Nome | ALASKA | 34 | 2024 |
| Togiak River | ALASKA | 26 | 2005 |
| Nome | ALASKA | 11 | 2023 |
| Cold Bay | ALASKA | 6 | 2024 |
| Cold Bay (Short) | ALASKA | 5 | 1991 |
| Kodiak | ALASKA | 3 | 1983 |
| Kodiak 2 | ALASKA | 3 | 2019 |
| St. Mary'S | ALASKA | 3 | 1994 |
| Kugarak (Short) | ALASKA | 3 | 1987 |
| Katmai N.P. | ALASKA | 2 | 2000 |
| Gweek River | ALASKA | 2 | 2002 |
| Tupuknuk | ALASKA | 2 | 1995 |
| Selawik (Short) | ALASKA | 2 | 1987 |
| Chiniak | ALASKA | 1 | 2024 |
| Dillingham | ALASKA | 1 | 2019 |
| King Salmon | ALASKA | 1 | 2024 |
| Council | ALASKA | 1 | 2010 |
| Salmon Lake | ALASKA | 1 | 2023 |
| Teller | ALASKA | 1 | 2009 |
| Kotzebue | ALASKA | 1 | 2024 |
| Kotzebue (Short) | ALASKA | 1 | 1994 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.