Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Arctic Tern In BCR 2

Arctic Tern in BCR 2 has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+45%Since 1985
23Routes In Region
40Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Arctic Tern in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Arctic Tern in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 132% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±566.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+132%Change by 2029
11Projected 2029 index
0.002695% range
±566.8%Backtest error
19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025110.0025
2026110.0025
2027110.0025
2028110.0026
2029110.0026

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Arctic Tern in BCR 2.
Goodnews BayALASKA632005
Kanektok RivALASKA482005
Cape NomeALASKA342024
Togiak RiverALASKA262005
NomeALASKA112023
Cold BayALASKA62024
Cold Bay (Short)ALASKA51991
KodiakALASKA31983
Kodiak 2ALASKA32019
St. Mary'SALASKA31994
Kugarak (Short)ALASKA31987
Katmai N.P.ALASKA22000
Gweek RiverALASKA22002
TupuknukALASKA21995
Selawik (Short)ALASKA21987
ChiniakALASKA12024
DillinghamALASKA12019
King SalmonALASKA12024
CouncilALASKA12010
Salmon LakeALASKA12023
TellerALASKA12009
KotzebueALASKA12024
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.