BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 3 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Arctic Tern In BCR 3

All regionsBCR 3Wetland birds

Arctic Tern in BCR 3 has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

+33%Since 1995
4Routes In Region
27Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Arctic Tern in BCR 3. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Arctic Tern in BCR 3 is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029
0.80Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.695% range
±26.6%Backtest error
19932029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.810.001.7
20260.810.001.7
20270.800.001.6
20280.800.001.6
20290.800.001.6

Routes In BCR 3

Routes recording Arctic Tern in BCR 3.
UtqiagvikALASKA22022
Galbraith L.ALASKA22022
Red DogALASKA22024
Dietrich CmpALASKA12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.