Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Arctic Tern In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regions Northern Pacific Rainforest Wetland birds

Arctic Tern in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-63%Since 1983

12Routes In Region

38Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Arctic Tern has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Arctic Tern in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 245% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+245%Change by 2029

0.28Projected 2029 index

0.00–0.7395% range

±136.8%Backtest error

Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.

Year	Projected index	95% high
2025	0.27	0.72
2026	0.27	0.72
2027	0.27	0.72
2028	0.27	0.73
2029	0.28	0.73

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Arctic Tern in Northern Pacific Rainforest.

Moose Pass	ALASKA	5	1992
Skagway	ALASKA	4	2024
Seward	ALASKA	3	1984
Cordova	ALASKA	3	2012
Mitkof Isle	ALASKA	3	1989
Copper River	ALASKA	3	2011
Juneau Alt	ALASKA	2	1984
Yakutat	ALASKA	2	2016
Stikine River	ALASKA	2	2022
Juneau	ALASKA	1	2024
Haines	ALASKA	1	2024
Sheep Mtn	ALASKA	1	2002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.