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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Glaucous Gull Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWetland birds

Glaucous Gull in Alaska has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-96%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Glaucous Gull Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Glaucous Gull has collapsed in Alaska: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Glaucous Gull Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Glaucous Gull in Alaska is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±514.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±514.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Glaucous Gull in Alaska is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±514.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0040
20260.000.0040
20270.000.0040
20280.000.0040
20290.000.0040

Glaucous Gull Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Glaucous Gull in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Homer25319781977
Kotzebue (Short)16819941986
Kotzebue8020242001
Utqiagvik1920232021
Red Dog1820241995
Hope920122011
Council820181993
Tupuknuk619951995
Nome520231993
St. Mary'S520111994
Kobuk River (Short)519911991
Kugarak (Short)519871986
Skilak Lake319781978
Galbraith L.320241994
Coldfoot220132013
Happy Valley220241993
Ruby220072007
Gweek River220021995
Selawik (Short)219871986
Chiniak120152015
Cape Nome120241993
Hather Creek120182007
Kanuti Canyn120172016
Mud River120172008
Salmon Lake120181994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.