BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Glaucous Gull Population Analysis

LaridaeWetland birdsLarus hyperboreus

Glaucous Gull has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-34%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Glaucous Gull

The Glaucous Gull (Larus hyperboreus) is a North American member of the Gulls, Terns & Skimmers (Laridae). In this analysis it is grouped with the wetland birds.

Size
8.5–31.5 in long (22–80 cm) — a long-winged waterbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Marshes, ponds, lakeshores and other freshwater wetlands.
Diet
Aquatic invertebrates, small fish, frogs and plant matter.
Range
Recorded on 27 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 1 state, most concentrated in the BCR 2.
Family
Laridae · Wetland birds

Notable Glaucous Gull TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Glaucous Gull. See the full index history below.

Glaucous Gull Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Glaucous Gull is projected to rise about 99% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±162.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+99%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±162.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Glaucous Gull is projected to rise about 99% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±162.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.150.000.34
20270.150.000.34
20280.150.000.34
20290.150.000.35
20300.160.000.35

Where the Glaucous Gull Is Detected

BBS routes recording Glaucous Gull, sized by most recent count.

Glaucous Gull Population Trend by State

Glaucous Gull population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska-96%198627

Glaucous Gull Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Glaucous Gull population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2+366%199313
BCR 3+405%19954
BCR 4-100%19919

Glaucous Gull Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 34% since 1986.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.