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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-throated Loon Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWetland birds

Red-throated Loon in Alaska has surged: up 155% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+155%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-throated Loon Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-throated Loon has surged in Alaska: up 155% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Red-throated Loon Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Red-throated Loon in Alaska is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.14–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.64Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-throated Loon in Alaska is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.14–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.610.111.1
20270.620.111.1
20280.630.121.1
20290.640.131.1
20300.640.141.1

Red-throated Loon Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Red-throated Loon in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kotzebue1520252001
Utqiagvik720232021
Petersburg719871987
Nome620231993
Galbraith L.520241994
Birch Lake320252023
Cape Nome320241993
Hather Creek320152000
Salmon Lake320121995
Cordova320031997
Thorne Bay 2320252013
Kugarak (Short)319871987
Goodnews Bay320051999
Chiniak220061989
Mccarthy Rd2219951995
Monahan219921992
Donelly Dome220242015
Tangle Lakes219871987
Kanuti Canyn220241999
Anvik River220241998
Togiak River220051994
Gweek River219981998
Hyder220042000
Kanektok Riv220051995
Sitka (Short)219841984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.