BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-throated Loon

GaviidaeWetland birdsGavia stellata

Red-throated Loon has no long-term trend on record.

n/aSince n/aTrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Red-throated Loon

The Red-throated Loon (Gavia stellata) is a North American member of the Loons (Gaviidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the wetland birds.

Size
23.5–35.5 in long (60–90 cm) — a large diving bird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Marshes, ponds, lakeshores and other freshwater wetlands.
Diet
Aquatic invertebrates, small fish, frogs and plant matter.
Range
Recorded on 59 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 1 state, most concentrated in the BCR 4.
Family
Gaviidae · Wetland birds

Notable Red-throated Loon TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-throated Loon. See the full index history below.

Red-throated Loon Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-throated Loon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.01–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-throated Loon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.01–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.010.03
20260.020.010.03
20270.020.010.03
20280.020.010.03
20290.020.010.03

Where the Red-throated Loon Is Detected

BBS routes recording Red-throated Loon, sized by most recent count.

Red-throated Loon Population Trend by State

Red-throated Loon population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska+145%198359

Red-throated Loon Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Red-throated Loon population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2+315%198617
BCR 3+266%19984
BCR 4+114%198723
Northern Pacific Rainforest+58%198415

Red-throated Loon Conservation Status

Red-throated Loon is tracked across BBS survey routes; no formal conservation-status flag is recorded here.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.