BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-throated Loon In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWetland birds

Red-throated Loon in Northern Pacific Rainforest has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+58%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-throated Loon in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-throated Loon in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-throated Loon in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.08
20260.030.000.08
20270.030.000.08
20280.030.000.08
20290.030.000.08

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Red-throated Loon in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PetersburgALASKA71987
CordovaALASKA32003
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA32024
HyderALASKA22004
Sitka (Short)ALASKA21984
CraigALASKA12000
KetchikanALASKA12021
HainesALASKA11972
Sheep MtnALASKA12010
Thorne BayALASKA11997
Mitkof IsleALASKA12024
HoonahALASKA11997
Whale PassALASKA12023
Copper RiverALASKA12006
Stikine RiverALASKA11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.