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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-necked Grebe Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWetland birds

Red-necked Grebe in Alaska has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-84%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-necked Grebe Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-necked Grebe has collapsed in Alaska: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Red-necked Grebe Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Red-necked Grebe in Alaska is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-necked Grebe in Alaska is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.84
20260.000.000.83
20270.000.000.83
20280.000.000.83
20290.000.000.83

Red-necked Grebe Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Red-necked Grebe in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Selawik (Short)1519871986
Kugarak (Short)1319871986
Goose Bay519821975
Kobuk River (Short)419921992
Kenny Lake419891986
Slana320221997
Kanuti Canyn320011998
Tower Bluffs220132013
Northway220221989
Hather Creek220242009
Nicholai Sl220241993
Willow220241999
Mud River220222022
Salmon Lake220091996
Ft. Richrdsn220101994
Elmendorf (Short)219851984
Gweek River220011994
Tupuknuk219951995
Kachemak220241987
Bear Creek219911986
Wasilla219831983
Galena (Short)220241987
Kotzebue (Short)219861986
Swan Lake Rd220231982
Anchor River219971997

Red-necked Grebe Population Trend in Other States

idahominnesotamontananorth-dakotaoregonwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.