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Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-necked Grebe Population Trend in Montana

All statesWetland birds

Red-necked Grebe in Montana has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-80%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-necked Grebe Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-necked Grebe has collapsed in Montana: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Red-necked Grebe Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Red-necked Grebe in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-necked Grebe in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.16
20260.020.000.15
20270.020.000.15
20280.020.000.15
20290.020.000.15

Red-necked Grebe Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Red-necked Grebe in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Inside Road220242023
Noxon220022002
Augusta219971992
Kalispell120241969
St Mary120051985
St. Mary 2120242024
Arlee120111977
Two Dot120192016

Red-necked Grebe Population Trend in Other States

alaskaidahominnesotanorth-dakotaoregonwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.