BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-necked Grebe

PodicipedidaeWetland birdsPodiceps grisegena

Red-necked Grebe has surged: up 756% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+756%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Red-necked Grebe

The Red-necked Grebe (Podiceps grisegena) is a North American member of the Grebes (Podicipedidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the wetland birds.

Size
9–21.5 in long (23–55 cm) — a diving water bird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Marshes, ponds, lakeshores and other freshwater wetlands.
Diet
Aquatic invertebrates, small fish, frogs and plant matter.
Range
Recorded on 100 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 9 states, most concentrated in the BCR 4.
Family
Podicipedidae · Wetland birds

Notable Red-necked Grebe TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-necked Grebe. See the full index history below.

Red-necked Grebe Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-necked Grebe is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.01–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-necked Grebe is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.01–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.010.04
20260.030.010.05
20270.030.010.05
20280.030.010.05
20290.030.010.05

Where the Red-necked Grebe Is Detected

BBS routes recording Red-necked Grebe, sized by most recent count.

Red-necked Grebe Population Trend by State

Red-necked Grebe population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska-84%198251
Idaho-78%19793
Minnesota+352%199313
Montana-80%19718
North Dakota26×198614
Oregoninsufficient datan/a1
Washington-72%19857
Wisconsininsufficient datan/a1
Wyominginsufficient datan/a2

Red-necked Grebe Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Red-necked Grebe population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2-97%199411
BCR 4-74%198235
Northern Rockies-86%197117
Prairie Potholes21×198618

Red-necked Grebe Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 756% since 1971.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.