BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-necked Grebe In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Wetland birds

Red-necked Grebe in BCR 4 has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-74%Since 1982
35Routes In Region
43Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Red-necked Grebe has fallen sharply in BCR 4: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-necked Grebe in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2029
0.13Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.195% range
±41.9%Backtest error
19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.200.001.1
20260.180.001.1
20270.160.001.1
20280.140.001.1
20290.130.001.1

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Red-necked Grebe in BCR 4.
Goose BayALASKA51982
Kenny LakeALASKA41989
Kobuk River (Short)ALASKA41992
SlanaALASKA32022
Kanuti CanynALASKA32001
Tower BluffsALASKA22013
NorthwayALASKA22022
WillowALASKA22024
Bear CreekALASKA21991
Swan Lake RdALASKA22023
Anchor RiverALASKA21997
WasillaALASKA21983
Nicholai SlALASKA22024
KachemakALASKA22024
Hather CreekALASKA22024
Mud RiverALASKA22022
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA22010
Galena (Short)ALASKA22024
Birch LakeALASKA12019
ChistochinaALASKA12021
CantwellALASKA11999
HomerALASKA11982
Chena Hot SpALASKA11990
SourdoughALASKA11991
TonsinaALASKA12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.