BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-necked Grebe In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Red-necked Grebe in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1986.

21×Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-necked Grebe has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Red-necked Grebe In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-necked Grebe in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.29–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-necked Grebe in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.29–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.540.240.84
20260.550.250.85
20270.560.270.86
20280.570.280.87
20290.590.290.89

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Red-necked Grebe in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA242024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA112024
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA32024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA32024
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA32024
HartlandMINNESOTA22001
DawsonMINNESOTA22004
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA22021
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA22009
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA22024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA22019
GlyndonMINNESOTA12005
TenneyMINNESOTA11990
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA12007
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA12022
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA12013
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA12024
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.