BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-necked Grebe In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Red-necked Grebe in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1986.

21×Since 1986
18Routes In Region
39Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Red-necked Grebe has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-necked Grebe in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.29–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029
0.59Projected 2029 index
0.29–0.8995% range
±42.8%Backtest error
19812029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.540.240.84
20260.550.250.85
20270.560.270.86
20280.570.280.87
20290.590.290.89

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Red-necked Grebe in Prairie Potholes.
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA242024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA112024
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA32024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA32024
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA32024
HartlandMINNESOTA22001
DawsonMINNESOTA22004
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA22021
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA22009
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA22024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA22019
GlyndonMINNESOTA12005
TenneyMINNESOTA11990
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA12007
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA12022
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA12013
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA12024
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.