BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-necked Grebe In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWetland birds

Red-necked Grebe in Northern Rockies has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-86%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-necked Grebe has collapsed in Northern Rockies: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Red-necked Grebe In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-necked Grebe in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-necked Grebe in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.11
20260.000.000.11
20270.000.000.11
20280.000.000.11
20290.000.000.11

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Red-necked Grebe in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sullivan LkWASHINGTON31999
NaplesIDAHO22006
AugustaMONTANA21997
NoxonMONTANA22002
Inside RoadMONTANA22024
MivodenIDAHO12011
KalispellMONTANA12024
St MaryMONTANA12005
ArleeMONTANA12011
St. Mary 2MONTANA12024
Twin LakesWASHINGTON12009
CusickWASHINGTON12008
CurlewWASHINGTON11994
Sullivan Lake 2WASHINGTON12008
L Pend O NwrWASHINGTON12001
FontenelleWYOMING11991
Hunter PeakWYOMING11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.