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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Grebe Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWetland birds

Horned Grebe in Alaska has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

-84%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Grebe Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Grebe has collapsed in Alaska: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Horned Grebe Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Horned Grebe in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±233.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±233.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Grebe in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±233.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.16
20250.000.000.16
20260.000.000.16
20270.000.000.16
20280.000.000.16

Horned Grebe Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Horned Grebe in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chena Hot Spring 2320022000
Birch Lake219931993
Slana220131997
Northway220131989
Mccarthy Rd2219951995
Galbraith L.219971997
L Salcha219881988
Ft. Richrdsn220221995
Cordova220221993
Dietrich Cmp219941994
Circle120062002
Nebesna119751975
Nabesna Road120061991
Chistochina120081990
Monahan119961983
Toklat120092008
Coldfoot119951995
Kenny Lake120181989
Sheep Mtn120071994
Sourdough120212021
Red Dog120232023
Copper River120111993
Swan Lake Rd119871987
Goodnews Bay120022002

Horned Grebe Population Trend in Other States

minnesotamontananorth-dakotasouth-dakotawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.