BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pacific Loon Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWetland birds

Pacific Loon in Alaska has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+3%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pacific Loon Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pacific Loon in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Pacific Loon Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Pacific Loon in Alaska is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.02–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pacific Loon in Alaska is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.02–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.020.45
20260.230.020.45
20270.230.020.45
20280.230.020.45
20290.230.020.45

Pacific Loon Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Pacific Loon in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cold Bay420212021
Anvik River320211998
Kotzebue320242001
Swan Lake Rd320231984
Utqiagvik220232023
Paxson Lake219961996
Nabesna Road220241994
Kuskulana220231991
Mccarthy Rd2220241990
Burma Road220111997
Council220231995
Donelly Dome220122007
Craig220082008
Ketchikan219931993
Unalakleet River220171996
Nicholai Sl220242024
Hather Creek220162010
Porcupine R.220021997
Thompson Pas219831983
Red Dog220222022
Seven Lakes220101994
Cohoe220182012
Selawik (Short)219861986
Kotzebue (Short)219941986
Hatcher Pass220172017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.