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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Short-billed Gull Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWetland birds

Short-billed Gull in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-59%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Short-billed Gull Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Short-billed Gull has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Short-billed Gull Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Short-billed Gull in Alaska is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Short-billed Gull in Alaska is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.80.009.3
20262.70.009.2
20272.60.009.1
20282.50.009.0
20292.40.008.9

Short-billed Gull Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Short-billed Gull in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Seward13219921982
Juneau Alt8319861984
Kalifonsky5620231982
Petersburg4819871987
Cape Nome4320241993
Homer3919821977
Cold Bay2720241993
Kotzebue (Short)2619941986
Kobuk River (Short)2219921991
Goodnews Bay2120051999
Tupuknuk2119951995
Cottonwood2019901987
Alpenglow (Short)1820121994
Juneau1720131984
Nome1620231993
Skagway1620231994
Kanektok Riv1620051995
Sitka (Short)1519921984
Cordova1420241983
King Salmon1320241993
Moose Pass1219921983
Wasilla1019831983
Tangle Lakes1019871987
Anvik River1020231998
Ketchikan920221990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.