BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-legged Kittiwake Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWetland birds

Black-legged Kittiwake in Alaska has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-22%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-legged Kittiwake Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-legged Kittiwake in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Black-legged Kittiwake Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Black-legged Kittiwake in Alaska is projected to rise about 15× by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±455.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

15×Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±455.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-legged Kittiwake in Alaska is projected to rise about 15× by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±455.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.70.0016
20274.70.0016
20284.80.0016
20294.90.0016
20305.00.0016

Black-legged Kittiwake Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Black-legged Kittiwake in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Homer4619821978
Kotzebue1020252002
Chiniak920221987
Adak919921983
Yakutat920251993
Kachemak420051996
Kotzebue (Short)419941986
Mitkof Isle320032003
Kodiak 2220231986
Cordova220222008
Cape Nome220231997
Seward119841983
Juneau119961996
Haines119961993
Cold Bay119971994

Black-legged Kittiwake Population Trend in Other States

washington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.