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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-legged Kittiwake Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWetland birds

Black-legged Kittiwake in Alaska has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+21%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-legged Kittiwake Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-legged Kittiwake in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Black-legged Kittiwake Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Black-legged Kittiwake in Alaska is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±526.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±526.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-legged Kittiwake in Alaska is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±526.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.00.0016
20265.10.0016
20275.20.0016
20285.30.0016
20295.40.0016

Black-legged Kittiwake Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Black-legged Kittiwake in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kotzebue28020242002
Homer4619821978
Chiniak920221987
Adak919921983
Kachemak420051996
Kotzebue (Short)419941986
Mitkof Isle320032003
Kodiak 2220231986
Cordova220222008
Cape Nome220231997
Yakutat220241993
Seward119841983
Juneau119961996
Haines119961993
Cold Bay119971994

Black-legged Kittiwake Population Trend in Other States

washington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.