BirdAnalyst
Guild · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wetland Birds In Texas

All statesTexas

42 species in this guild. As a group they are -55%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wetland birds as a group have fallen sharply in Texas, down 55% since 1969.

Wetland Birds In Texas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.9 (95% range 0.21–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.9 (95% range 0.21–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.10.413.9
20272.10.363.8
20282.00.313.8
20292.00.263.7
20301.90.213.7

Member Species In Texas

Wetland birds species in Texas.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Clapper RailRallidae-93%
White-faced IbisThreskiornithidae-91%
American White PelicanPelecanidae-89%
King RailRallidae-81%
Wood StorkCiconiidae-77%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-72%
AnhingaAnhingidae-71%
Ring-billed GullLaridae-68%
Boat-tailed GrackleIcteridae-67%
Roseate SpoonbillThreskiornithidae-58%
Reddish EgretArdeidae-55%
Purple GallinuleRallidae-55%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-52%
American CootRallidae-48%
Green HeronArdeidae-47%
Great-tailed GrackleIcteridae-47%
Pied-billed GrebePodicipedidae-41%
Black SkimmerLaridae-36%
Least BitternArdeidae-35%
Little Blue HeronArdeidae-25%
Great EgretArdeidae-6%
Western Cattle-EgretArdeidae+8%
Caspian TernLaridae+18%
Common GallinuleRallidae+18%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae+41%
Gull-billed TernLaridae+44%
Yellow-crowned Night HeronArdeidae+51%
Least GrebePodicipedidae+85%
Black RailRallidae+87%
Least TernLaridae+127%
Yellow-headed BlackbirdIcteridae+129%
Snowy EgretArdeidae+131%
Tricolored HeronArdeidae+138%
Royal TernLaridae+147%
Forster's TernLaridae+186%
Seaside SparrowPasserellidae+217%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae+248%
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae+355%
Laughing GullLaridae+477%
Neotropic CormorantPhalacrocoracidae+761%
White IbisThreskiornithidae+899%
Brown PelicanPelecanidae16×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.