BirdAnalyst
Guild · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wetland Birds In Texas

All statesTexas

34 species in this guild. As a group they are -13%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for wetland birds in Texas. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Texas is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.96 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.41–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Texas is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.96 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.41–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.422.8
20261.60.422.8
20271.60.422.8
20281.60.412.8
20291.60.412.7

Member Species In Texas

Wetland birds species in Texas.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
American White PelicanPelecanidae-92%
Clapper RailRallidae-88%
White-faced IbisThreskiornithidae-86%
King RailRallidae-70%
Reddish EgretArdeidae-70%
Ring-billed GullLaridae-68%
Green HeronArdeidae-52%
Least BitternArdeidae-51%
Roseate SpoonbillThreskiornithidae-48%
Pied-billed GrebePodicipedidae-45%
Purple GallinuleRallidae-41%
American CootRallidae-41%
Black SkimmerLaridae-36%
Little Blue HeronArdeidae-32%
Great EgretArdeidae-3%
Caspian TernLaridae+2%
Western Cattle-EgretArdeidae+10%
Yellow-crowned Night HeronArdeidae+14%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae+29%
Common GallinuleRallidae+50%
Tricolored HeronArdeidae+53%
Gull-billed TernLaridae+63%
Black RailRallidae+74%
Least GrebePodicipedidae+87%
Snowy EgretArdeidae+100%
Forster's TernLaridae+152%
Least TernLaridae+178%
Royal TernLaridae+249%
Neotropic CormorantPhalacrocoracidae+419%
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae+447%
Laughing GullLaridae+603%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae+695%
White IbisThreskiornithidae+980%
Brown PelicanPelecanidae24×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.