BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White Ibis Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

White Ibis in Texas has surged: up 980% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+980%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White Ibis Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White Ibis has surged in Texas: up 980% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White Ibis Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, White Ibis in Texas is projected to rise about 183% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 0.00–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+183%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White Ibis in Texas is projected to rise about 183% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 0.00–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.70.008.6
20263.70.008.6
20273.70.008.6
20283.80.008.7
20293.80.008.7

White Ibis Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording White Ibis in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcfaddin8620112007
Cayuga4520242004
Union Hill4020192019
Winnie3620231986
Indianola2920241977
Moon Lake 22520242012
Livingston2520001986
Katy2320241985
Massey Lake2320241976
Carlos2220241997
L. Atascosa Nwr1620231998
Athens1520161988
Loyola Beach1320071998
Mount Zion1120241994
San Pedro1119981998
Loyola Beach 21020222010
Oak Grove 2920222021
Hinkles Fer920241968
Port Acres820241995
Town Bluff720241998
Morton720232023
Fred720182018
Moon Lake620111994
Oak Grove519871987
Danbury420241977

White Ibis Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.