BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White Ibis Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

White Ibis in Texas has surged: up 899% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+899%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White Ibis Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White Ibis has surged in Texas: up 899% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White Ibis Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, White Ibis in Texas is projected to rise about 119% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+119%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±122.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White Ibis in Texas is projected to rise about 119% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.60.008.4
20273.60.008.5
20283.60.008.5
20293.70.008.5
20303.70.008.6

White Ibis Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording White Ibis in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcfaddin8620112007
Oak Grove 26220252021
Cayuga4020252004
Union Hill4020192019
L. Atascosa Nwr3620251998
Port Acres3020251995
Indianola2920241977
Lag Atascosa2620251972
Livingston2520001986
Carlos2220241997
Massey Lake2020251976
Athens1520161988
Danbury1420251977
Moon Lake 21420252012
Loyola Beach1320071998
Mount Zion1120241994
San Pedro1119981998
Loyola Beach 21020222010
Bayside 3820252005
Morton720232023
Moon Lake620111994
Oak Grove519871987
Easton 2520252025
Winnie420251986
Bayside 2320001997

White Ibis Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.